What Trump’s Aluminum and Steel Tariffs Will Mean, in Six Charts

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On February 10, President Donald Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all U.S. trade partners, effective March 12. Trump cast the tariffs as a crackdown on subsidized Chinese metal that is flooding global markets and—he argues—putting U.S. producers out of business. It is not yet clear whether the new taxes will be added on top of all existing duties, though a White House official said this would be the case for Canada. The tariffs will likely raise costs for industries that rely on steel and aluminum, bringing higher prices for consumers and job losses in downstream sectors.

Here are six graphics that show the potential economic effects of these steel and aluminum tariffs on the United States and the world.

How could steel and aluminum tariffs affect the United States?

The United States depends on foreign partners for much of its aluminum supply. Americans buy about half of their aluminum from abroad [PDF], and rely even more heavily on imports for special aluminum products. Roughly two-thirds of primary aluminum comes from Canada, according to the Aluminum Association, where lower energy costs make it cheaper to produce. Electronics, aerospace, and defense manufacturers use the metal to meet purity and consistency standards, so a 25 percent tariff would make building military aircraft and lightweight armor plating in the United States more expensive.

The United States relies less on imported steel. Domestic steel mills churn out about three-quarters of what Americans use. Still, many industries—including aerospace, auto, construction, and energy—depend on foreign sources for specific types of steel, such as steel pipes and tubes, which can withstand extreme temperatures and pressures. The United States imports some 40 percent of its piping and other rolled steel materials—often to drill wells—so an added tax would drive up costs for American oil producers, among other sectors.

The tariffs would likely boost steel prices, benefiting U.S. producers and potentially adding to the industry’s 140,000 jobs. Indeed, when Trump first imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018, prices for both metals rose some 2 percent, and imports fell by about a quarter.

However, any job gains will likely be offset by losses in manufacturing and other industries that rely on steel. In 2018, steel-using sectors of the economy employed more than twelve million Americans. Nearly two million of those worked in steel-intensive industries—where steel inputs make up at least 5 percent of total input requirements—including auto parts, farming machinery, and household appliance manufacturing. Research estimates that Trump’s 2018 tariffs led to the direct loss of seventy-five thousand manufacturing jobs [PDF], with additional losses from retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries, often on non-steel products. 

Higher steel and aluminum costs would hit construction, auto, packaging, appliances, machinery, oil and gas, and electrical industries the hardest. Aluminum makes up around 80 percent of an airframe’s weight and—along with steel—a quarter of Coca-Cola packaging, meaning tariffs could make American planes and drinks pricier on the global market. Building a car, similarly, takes about half a ton of steel, so a 25 percent tariff could add over $1,000 in production costs per vehicle.

Manufacturers could then pass those costs onto consumers. Indeed, in 2018, U.S.-based Caterpillar—the world’s largest manufacturer of construction equipment—bumped up prices to make up for more than $100 million in extra costs, blaming Trump’s metal tariffs. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that, in the end, Trump’s steel tariffs cost taxpayers more than $900,000 each year for every job they saved or created.

How could steel and aluminum tariffs affect other countries?

Canada stands to take the biggest hit as the top U.S. supplier of imported aluminum and steel. Over half of U.S. aluminum product imports come from its northern neighbor, far more than from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China, the next largest sources. And Canada exports almost all of its steel products to the United States, outpacing Germany, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, and other major U.S. trade partners.

The tariffs will also hurt steelmakers in Brazil and South Korea as Trump plans to end their exemptions from his 2018 duties. In Brazil, steel mills send nearly half their exports to the United States. And though South Korea sends less steel to the United States than it did in 2018, the United States is still its top destination. But the overall economic effects should be relatively minor. In Brazil, producers sell most of their steel domestically—the United States makes up about 11 percent of sales. And steel makes up less than 1 percent of South Korean exports to the United States.

Though Trump cited national security grounds and China’s dominance on global markets to justify the tariffs, they will barely affect Beijing. China produces more than half of the world’s steel but it exports relatively little to the United States or close U.S. partners. The country’s biggest aluminum manufacturer exports less than 1 percent of its product, and others earn even less revenue from North America, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Part of the reason is that Chinese steel and aluminum already face high tariffs from the United States and its top trade partners. President Joe Biden tripled tariffs on the metals last year, bringing rates to 25 percent. Mexico, too, upped its levies on Chinese steel ball and nail producers and, in 2023, imposed nearly 80 percent tariffs on Chinese steel coming through Vietnam. And in January 2025, the European Union (EU) placed temporary duties on a handful of imported Chinese steelmakers and tin-plated steel products after an investigation revealed they were selling at excessively low prices.

What could happen next?

Some companies and governments will seek to negotiate exemptions for their products. Most steel imports now enter the United States largely tariff-free as Trump and Biden negotiated exclusions or quotas with top suppliers. In return, Canada and Mexico moved closer to signing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and other countries agreed to cap their steel exports.

As the United States’ two most important free trade partners, Canada and Mexico will likely be first to seek exemptions. Their steel and aluminum exports to the United States make up 0.8 percent and 0.3 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP), respectively, according to Bloomberg Economics. With Trump’s new tariffs set to take effect on March 12, negotiations could fast-track a USMCA review originally scheduled for July 2026.

Other countries will push for deals, too, hoping Trump follows his first-term playbook. Brazil and South Korea secured quotas last time and will likely seek the same again. Japan has already requested an exemption, having previously received one under Biden. Meanwhile, Trump has agreed to consider a request from Australia, which sends nearly a third of its steel and steel-product exports to the United States—though negotiations could take months.

Those left without exemptions could retaliate as Canada, Mexico, and the EU did during Trump’s first term. Their countertariffs targeted billions of dollars worth of U.S. goods, including bourbon whiskey, Levi’s jeans, and Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as pork, cheese, and motorboats. Most countertariffs were eventually lifted, though a temporary deal with the EU expires on March 31, at which point the bloc could resume—and double—its original duties. The EU has already vowed to retaliate, as has Brazil. The United Kingdom, meanwhile, has said it will hold off for now, aiming to negotiate exemptions first.

Diana Roy and Will Merrow created the graphics for this article.